Race Adds Alpha At Park

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Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trainer Todd Pletcher has been dominating the Sam F. Davis Stakes in recent years and has another opportunity to win the event with its 32nd renewal on Saturday. The $250,000 stakes, with a field of 11 three-year-olds, will be conducted over a distance of 1 1/16-miles. Pletcher, who has won the last two and four of the last six editions, has entered Ecabroni for St. George Stable. The gray colt has drawn post four with Javier Castellano riding. Castellano won last week's Holy Bull Stakes for Pletcher aboard Algorithms at Gulfstream Park.

 

Also coming in from Gulfstream is Reveron, winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day. Owned by Stipa Racing Stable, Reveron will be ridden by Fernando Jara from post 10.

 

Local winner Prospective has drawn the far outside post with Luis Contreras keeping the mount. Trained by Mark Casse, the colt won Tampa's Pasco Stakes last month at odds of 5-2.

 

The Sam F. Davis Stakes is scheduled for 5:10 p.m. (et) and is the final local prep for next month's Tampa Bay Derby.

 

Former winners of the Davis include General Quarters in 2009 and Any Given Saturday in 2007.

 

Baffert will also start Westrock Stables' Sky Kingdom in the Lewis. The colt will be ridden by Martin Garcia from post five.

 

Sky Kingdom, 6-1 in the program, was fourth in the CashCall, but came back last month to win an allowance race at Santa Anita. In five starts he has two wins for $125,930.

 

Rousing Sermon will be taking on Liaison for a third straight time. The veteran of six starts was second to the Baffert horse in both the Real Quiet and CashCall Futurity. Hollendorfer's horse won the California Cup Juvenile last October and has banked $274,000.

 

The Robert B.Lewis Stakes has a scheduled post-time of 6:05 p.m. (et).

 

Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday gets solidly onto the Kentucky Derby trail with the running of the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes. The 32nd edition of the 1 1/16-mile race has attracted a field of 11 three- year-olds and is the final local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10. Heading the field as the 3-1 morning-line favorite is Reveron, winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day. Owned by Stipa Racing Stable, Reveron will be ridden by Fernando Jara from post 10.

 

Ecabroni will be making only his third career start on Saturday and is coming off his maiden win last month at Gulfstream Park.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.